Electric Vehicles Get the Brush-Off by TOTN Guests

Today’s "Talk of the Nation" show on National Public Radio had a segment on fixing Detroit – as in, what do we do with GM and Chrysler? In the course of the discussion, host Neal Conan’s guests – Micheline Maynard, senior business correspondent for The New York Times, and Dan Neil, automotive critic for The Los Angeles Times – more or less dissed the idea of electric vehicles having much impact in the nation’s future car mix.

Here are excerpts from the program, starting with a quote from Maynard:

"So much emphasis is being put on the Volt, and the Volt is a niche vehicle. They’re going to sell 10,000 in the first year. It’s gonna cost $40,000. This isn’t something that’s going to be an everyday car for you and me. It’s going to be a third or fourth car for a lot of wealthy people."

Neil picked up the thread:

“You want to see losing money? Wait until the Volt comes out (Maynard chuckles), because the Volt is a money loser, and that’s the problem. There’s a fundamental tension between what people say they want. They want these companies to reinvent themselves and make these high-mileage, fuel-efficient next-generation technology and all of that, and all of that is a money loser. There is no commercial case for that. I’m not saying we shouldn’t build them. In fact, I’m saying we should build them as fast as we can because they would serve a larger national strategic interest – namely oil balance of trade, global warming. But to require these companies on top of everything else they face to revolutionize their product portfolio and expect them to bear the burden of those costs is unrealistic….”

So here we have two widely read car industry observers who pretty much laughed off the whole idea of electric vehicles, even though they serve a “larger national strategic interest.” You have to wonder whether they’ve absorbed, chameleon-like, the same mindset of the industry they watch.

They’re only two people, but their comments weren’t encouraging for the future of electric cars in Hawaii, a state with an overwhelming economic interest to get off oil. That’s what Hawaii residents want, and we expect car manufacturers – American or otherwise – to get us there.

Making the Hawaii Case

Beyond the “larger national strategic interest” electric vehicles can serve, Hawaii needs to get off oil because the state is more dependent on oil than any other; electrifying transportation is a big part of what has to happen here.  

According to Hawaiian Electric Company, 63 percent of the oil imported here is used in transportation. The biggest slice goes to air transportation – admittedly a tougher nut to crack than ground transportation – but on the ground is where companies Better Place and Phoenix Motorcars have something to prove.

Oahu is the perfect test laboratory for their electric vehicles; almost all car commutes here are less than 30 miles, and most are appreciably shorter than that. If Better Place and Phoenix actually roll out their projects here as they’ve asserted they will, Hawaii could be the showcase for the first wave of electric cars to hit the street.

And if that happens, maybe even the Times newspapers on both coasts would notice.

Keeping Tabs: Oil Stays Above $50/Barrel for Week

We’ve been showing the Crude Oil graph in the right column for months now thanks to the folks at oil-price.net. They make it easy to stay informed on the biggest influence on Hawaii’s cost of living.

Oil passed $50 a week ago today for the first time in three months, and it hasn’t fallen below that level since. Residents here already are talking about the rising price of gas over the past two months, and we’ll soon see the influence of oil’s higher price in our electric bills.

Anecdotally, our own electric bill was above $180/month in late summer after oil reached $147/barrel in July. Our most recent bill was about $75, which shows oil’s great impact in a state that generates about 78 percent of its electricity by burning it.

President Obama mentions the importance of developing the country’s renewable energy potential in nearly every press conference and town meeting. Perhaps more than the rest of the nation, Hawaii residents support him in achieving that goal. No other state is as dependent on oil or has more to gain by loosening oil’s grip on our economy.

Energy Stimulus Funds Coming

The Obama Administration is sending more than $15 million to Hawaii for energy efficiency and conservation projects, according to an announcement today.  Keeping track of the various stimulus packages flowing from Washington can be confusing, though; headlines two weeks ago said Hawaii is receiving $30 million for energy programs. And can we even be sure the funds will end up where they've been designated?  (We've just been assured by a State official in a position to know that there's no possibility of the energy funds being diverted as apparently is happening with other monies.  "We're working with the feds, counties and the PUC to make well thought-out decisions on where this money should go," he said. So forget the earlier speculation.)

UH’s ‘Sustainable Saunders’ Is Good Model for State

One of the overlooked components of the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative is the huge role conservation will play in achieving HCEI’s goals.  As we’ve noted here recently, the 2030 goal includes a big slice of energy conservation into what fossil fuel generation could grow to, a cut almost as large as what new renewable energy projects will provide.

Energy efficiency needs all the promotion it can get, such as yesterday’s Honolulu Advertiser feature on Sustainable Saunders, a student-led University of Hawaii initiative to make Saunders Hall a model of energy efficiency. The story contains numerous links to energy conservation websites and is highly recommended.

Sustainable Saunders is just the kind of young adult leadership that our new energy-oriented show on Hawaii Public Radio will want to feature (keep reading immediately below).

HPR to Launch Energy-Related Weekly Show in July

We don't often "break" news here, but this is one of those times: Hawaii Public Radio is developing a weekly “live” one-hour program that will focus on energy-related issues in the Aloha State. We’ll host the show.

Topics will range from renewable energy development, utility regulatory issues, energy policy initiatives, climate change implications for Hawaii, the next generation’s views on these subjects and many others.

The format will include in-studio guests on the show’s weekly topic, a listener call-in segment, current energy-related news and more. The show's launch date is Monday, July 6; it will be aired “live" from 5 to 6 p.m. each Monday on KIPO-FM, 89.3.

Hawaii Public Radio streams is programming “live” on the Internet, so the show’s potential audience is in the billions. For starters, we’ll be happy if you pass the word to a few of your friends.

Replacing Fossil Fuel Generation with Renewables Surest Way to Cut Toxic Releases to Environment

Here’s a fun fact from the Environmental Protection Agency’s just-released report called the Annual Toxic Release Inventory (TRI):

“Electric power generating facilities accounted for 67 percent of Hawaii’s TRI chemical releases, including 83 percent of the air releases.”

Of the “top facilities in Hawaii for chemicals releases,” which totaled 2,440,684 pounds of toxics, generation stations contributed 1,920,431 pounds, or 78.6 percent.  Those are 2007 totals.

Oil Passes $50 Mark for First Time Since January

The price of oil may have fallen below $50 per barrel by the time you read this, so we captured the graph at the $51.36 mark. (And maybe it'll be higher; one dollar's value vs. one euro has already fallen 7 cents today.)

We can’t fail to note the unmistakable upward trend in the price of oil beyond $50/barrel. It may be no more than just another unpredictable (for the average person) economic event, but in a state that relies on oil to deliver electricity, food, clothing and tourists, the upward price creep will soon affect everything we buy -- if it hasn't already.

Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative Efforts Expanded; HECO Clears Path for Lanai, Molokai Wind Farms

Governor Linda Lingle today announced additional support for the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (you can watch her press conference). Two senior engineers/project leaders from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Colorado will be stationed here to work on HCEI, which has a goal of supplying 70 percent of the state’s energy from renewable sources by 2030.

(That’s the “shorthand” version of the goal and the one favored by the media – and even by the Governor’s office on occasion; HCEI apparently gets to 70 percent by reducing demand and adding new clean energy – a mathematical plus-minus contortion that we accept on face value.)

Also today, Hawaiian Electric said it has cut a deal with two wind energy developers to supply 200 MW each from their projects on Lanai (Castle & Cooke) and Molokai (First Wind). Both companies had proposed 400-MW farms, but HECO says by scaling back those plans, both can proceed without winding up in a court fight over the total package.

Of course, both projects are fantasy without undersea cables to transit their power to Oahu’s population center, and all those details have yet to be addressed – including the cost of laying the cables and the means to pay for the investment. One way or the other, customers will pay this "green energy" premium -- the price for reducing Hawaii's carbon emissions and drastically reducing fossil fuel consumption.

Noting a Birthday -- Belatedly

The press release announcing the wind arrangements prominently mentions the intermittent nature of these projects, and that leads us back to this blog's beginnings on March 14, 2008. That’s when we first touted ocean thermal energy conversion as the baseload power game-changer for Hawaii.

We’re pleased of course that wind energy projects appear to be gathering momentum, but without development of steady baseload renewable energy sources or radically improved storage capabilities, intermittent wind power projects will only get us part-way to our goal of eliminating fossil fuel dependence in the islands.

Precious little has been said publicly in the past four months since the Governor’s high-profile announcement about the proposed Lockheed Martin pilot plant off Oahu’s west coast. So please, Lockheed, Governor Lingle, HECO, anybody: Give us some good news about OTEC!

(This greeting isn't belated: Happy Birthday, Grandson Jack!)

PGV Eyes Adding 8 More Geothermal Megawatts

The timing is coincidental but couldn’t be better. Puna Geothermal Ventures, which celebrated its 15th anniversary in December, is working to add 8 megawatts of generation capacity to its Big Island plant.

Today’s story in the Honolulu Advertiser arrived a few hours before today’s Business Game Plan seminar, which includes Henk Rogers’ presentation on the status of renewable energy progress in Hawaii and the challenges ahead to expand green energy here.

The story ends with this observation: The contract being negotiated by the Big Island utility and PGV’s owner “will be based on business costs, plus a reasonable profit and other factors.”

Gone will be the “avoided cost” formula, which has determined what renewable energy developers are paid based on the cost of fossil fuels the utility avoids burning to generate power on its own.  This new approach presumably is part of the new way of doing business announced with considerable fanfare in October.

New Predictions of Irreversible Climate Shifts Hold Dire Warning for Hawaii; a 1-Meter Sea Level Rise?

Have you ever had your ears rung after someone crept up behind you and crashed a pair of marching band cymbals together? We think the latest predictions of “irreversible climate shifts” should have that kind of attention-getting jolt. Scientists now meeting in Copenhagen say: 

"The worst-case IPCC scenario trajectories (or even worse) are being realized. There is a significant risk that many of the trends will accelerate, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts."

Among the predictions: Sea levels could rise 39 inches by the end of the century – i.e., during the lives of our children's grandchildren. That would be nearly twice as high as the earlier predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Computer models have shown that a 23-inch rise would drastically alter life in Hawaii, so we can only imagine what a one-meter rise would do – inundate Waikiki, wash away Kamehameha Highway, submerge the airport’s reef runway, destroy innumerable seaside homes, etc.

Attend This Seminar!

The scientists’ report is good timing for Monday’s seminar in Waikiki that will include a call to action to eliminate the use of climate-changing fossil fuels in Hawaii by 2020. Henk Rogers, founder of the Blue Planet Foundation, will be among three outstanding speakers at this year’s Business Game Plan, sponsored by the Rotary Club of Honolulu Sunrise.

Island residents seemingly have every reason to heed the Copenhagen warnings; our homes and habitat would be changed forever if sea levels were to rise as much as predicted. As a member of BGP’s sponsoring organization, we hope those predictions will move a few more Oahu residents to attend Monday’s seminar.

Red Flags Are Flying over Ocean Energy Project; Does Every ‘Green’ Proposal Merit Implementation?

Honolulu Advertiser graphic shows location of proposed ocean energy project.

We’re written repeatedly here about the three D’s that describe Hawaii’s relationship with imported fossil fuel – a debilitating, dependency that at times seems desperate. But how desperate?

Is Hawaii’s desperation so great that the community will endorse building an 80-square-mile wind and wave energy project in the middle of the state’s most important humpback whale sanctuary?

Other proposed energy projects have stalled over presumably much less potential impact. A proposed wind farm in West Oahu’s Waianae Mountain range died because of community opposition to its presumed visual pollution.

Today’s Honolulu Advertiser describes the proposed Grays Harbor Ocean Energy project in the Penguin Bank region of open ocean southwest of Molokai. In a story of more than 9,000 words, these six about company president Burton Hamner stand out:

“He has yet to contact HECO.”

That seems almost unbelievable and, if true, questions this company’s depth of understanding about how Hawaii works, let alone its appreciation for Hawaii’s enthusiasm for protecting its whale visitors.

Two other D words are pertinent here – distance and disadvantage. With their home base on the mainland, too many entrepreneurs have come to town with a big idea that never had a chance simply because they didn’t understand the islands and how business here works.

A Host of Questions

But those two Ds are essentially about protocol. Other issues are more pertinent, including whether we’re prepared to take chances with the whale sanctuary and whether the amount of the as-yet unknown “green energy premium” we’d presumably have to pay is worth the price. Wind turbines the size envisioned by Grays Harbor aren’t in service anywhere, and wave energy technology also is largely unproven.

Here’s another one we’ve asked before: Will building intermittent energy projects like what Grays Harbor has proposed (wind isn’t a reliable energy source) actually impede progress in developing other renewable projects that could provide baseload generation around the clock?

Details presumably are being worked out for Hawaii’s first small-scale ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) plant – the first step in the potential development of much larger offshore plants that could provide an unlimited supply of baseload electricity generation 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. Building many intermittent wind projects now could make regulators reluctant to approve future baseload projects.

And this side note: Backers of the pilot OTEC plant know how the game is played; they've met all the key people here so often they may well already have keys to the executive washroom.

Grays Harbor calls its Penguin Banks plan the Hawaii Ocean Energy Project. Until all the questions are answered, we prefer a different name – the Hawaiian Islands Humpback Whale National Marine Sanctuary Energy Project.

It provides essential perspective from the get-go.

Rotary Speaker Seeks Broader Public Support for Clean Energy Transition in Hawaii to ‘Get Off Oil’

We’re pulling out all stops today for some shameless promotion:

The Rotary Club of Honolulu Sunrise’s fundraising event on March 16th – “Business Game Plan ‘09” – will feature a leading renewable energy advocate, a multiple Academy Award winner and a leader who leads by serving.

They’re not the same person. Game Plan each year mixes three outstanding speakers, and this year’s lineup is perhaps the most dynamic in the event’s 14-year history.

The green energy advocate is Henk Rogers, creator of the Blue Planet Foundation of Honolulu, a frontline organization in the fight for renewable indigenous energy development in Hawaii. The Foundation’s goal: to end the use of fossil fuel on the planet, starting in Hawaii.

From Russia with Love

Rogers will update his Game Plan audience of several hundred on progress made so far toward that goal and what must happen next. Game Plan is also about passing on lessons learned from successful business careers, and Rogers’ presentation will include how he has made the Tetris video game the most popular electronic game in the world. (In 1988, he spotted Tetris at a Las Vegas trade show, flew to Moscow and won the distribution rights. More than 70 million units have been sold, as well as online gaming portal and cellular phone applications.)

Bring on the Oscars

The Academy Award winner is Dr. Ed Catmull, co-founder of Pixar Animation Studios, who heads the creative team that has produced blockbuster favorites including WALL-E, Ratatouille, The Incredibles, Finding Nemo, and Toy Story. Catmull has received several Academy Awards, including the 2009 Gordon E. Sawyer Award, a Technical Achievement Award, Scientific and Engineering Awards and an Academy Award of Merit. He is one of the architects of the RenderMan rendering software, which has been used in 44 of the last 47 films nominated for an Academy Award in the Visual Effects Category.

Serving by Leading

Also appearing at Game Plan will be Dr. Kent Keith, author of Anyway: The Paradoxical Commandments, based on a booklet he first published in 1968 for Harvard student leaders. Anyway became a National bestseller that was translated into 17 languages. The Commandments were also a fixture in Mother Teresa’s orphanage in Calcutta, India. Keith currently is the CEO of the Greenleaf Center for Servant Leadership in Indiana.

We’ll venture our subjective opinion that three more dynamic and inspirational speakers won’t be found on the same Hawaii stage in the foreseeable future. If you’re a renewable energy promoter or involved in green energy development in any way, come to BGP ’09 to support Henk and be inspired by all three.

An additional incentive: Your attendance will support Sunrise Rotary’s ongoing community and international service projects – including stamping out polio on the planet. It doesn’t get much more important than that.

Federal Help Needed To Speed Hawaii Renewables

Hawaii’s renewable energy industry is going to require major federal investment to realize its full potential.

Private investment has stepped up to develop wind farms and solar arrays primarily in Maui and Hawaii counties. But the ocean’s energy potential is still unrealized despite decades of commitment and research by private industry.

Federal funding for local initiatives is being touted perhaps more than ever in these early days of the Obama Administration, so now’s the time to focus on maximizing federal support. If ocean thermal energy conversion has as much promise as its backers suggest for Hawaii and later the nation, we can’t be satisfied with the slow pace of these private initiatives despite some indications of progress.

Among the states, Hawaii is the nation’s most dependent on fossil fuels – for electricity generation, to ship food and goods to the islands and to transport the millions of tourists who sustain the state’s economy.  (Jay Fidell assesses algae's potential, including as a replacement for jet fuel.)

Oil’s price has been fluctuating between $35 and $45 per barrel, but only eight months ago it was $100 higher. The rising price had already crippled Hawaii tourism, producing double-digit declines in tourist arrivals, and that trend has continued during the recession even as oil prices have fallen dramatically.

What Will You Do?

Hunter Lovins was a featured speaker at the Blue Planet Summit last April. The sustainable development promoter had this sobering challenge for the Hawaii residents in her audience:

"What are you, each one of you, going to do if oil is $300 a barrel? What is it going to do to your family, to your community, to your business, to the economy of these islands? I can guarantee you, you’re not going to have tourists coming here. So what are you going to do?"  

Hawaii must find the fast track to develop all feasible renewable technologies, and that includes the high-cost alternatives like OTEC and initiatives to develop renewable alternatives to jet fuel. We’ve come to believe that only a major federal commitment will put us on that track.

Our government leaders must dedicate themselves to making that happen. Governor Linda Lingle’s piece in today’s Honolulu Advertiser touches on these initiatives.

Mr. President, if Energy Independence Is Your Goal, Your Hawaii Home Can Be the Model for Change

(Be sure to see link at the end.)

From the President’s address to Congress and the nation tonight:

The only way this century will be another American century is if we confront at last the price of our dependence on oil….

We have known for decades that our survival depends on finding new sources of energy. Yet we import more oil today than ever before….

Mr. President, we know what you’re talkin’ about. The citizens of Hawaii, your birthplace, are more dependent on oil for the generation of our electricity than any other state in the nation. We’re ready to shoulder the burden, to accept the additional “green premium” to end our dependence on fossil fuel.

It begins with energy.

We know the country that harnesses the power of clean, renewable energy will lead the 21st century…. I do not accept a future where the jobs and industries of tomorrow take root beyond our borders - and I know you don't either. It is time for America to lead again.

You want leadership, Mr. President? Your Hawaii can provide not only leadership but inspiration and passionate commitment to energy independence. Why? Because Hawaii must out of necessity embrace the green revolution as a matter of survival! Our debilitating reliance on fossil fuel will surely finish us off as a viable society unless we act. We’re determined, but we’re a small place. You need look nowhere else to find an army of committed citizens eager to embrace the change you seek. All we need is your help.

Thanks to our recovery plan, we will double this nation's supply of renewable energy in the next three years. We have also made the largest investment in basic research funding in American history - an investment that will spur not only new discoveries in energy, but breakthroughs in medicine, science, and technology.

We will soon lay down thousands of miles of power lines that can carry new energy to cities and towns across this country. And we will put Americans to work making our homes and buildings more efficient so that we can save billions of dollars on our energy bills.

But to truly transform our economy, protect our security, and save our planet from the ravages of climate change, we need to ultimately make clean, renewable energy the profitable kind of energy. So I ask this Congress to send me legislation that places a market-based cap on carbon pollution and drives the production of more renewable energy in America. And to support that innovation, we will invest fifteen billion dollars a year to develop technologies like wind power and solar power; advanced biofuels, clean coal, and more fuel-efficient cars and trucks built right here in America.

Not to mention ocean thermal energy conversion, Mr. President. The tropical ocean that embraces your home state is the world’s greatest collector of solar energy – storing the energy equivalent of 250 billion barrels of oil each day!

By including OTEC in your energy investment strategy, you will set the stage for an energy revolution that will change the fate of the planet -- not only in the tropics, but around the globe. Surely your advisors and daughters will tell you about OTEC's unlimited promise.

So let it begin here, Mr. President. Your Hawaii is ready to lead the way to energy independence by embarking on the greatest energy turnaround in our nation’s history – transforming our society from near-total reliance on imported fossil fuel to become the first truly clean energy economy in the country.

Let it begin where you began, Mr. President. Hawaii prepared you to lead our nation, and now we are prepared to lead.

Continuing the Thought

If any of this appeals to you, please read today's post by Pat Takahashi at his Simple Solutions for Planet Earth and Humanity blog under the headline The Sustainable Paradise of the Pacific. This is must reading for renewable energy advocates in the 50th State.

More Ink on Oahu OTEC Plant, this Time from India

Orange stars mark Eastern Hemisphere locations that have produced recent news reports on Hawaii's future OTEC plant.

Is it just us, or does anybody else (especially Hawaii residents) think it’s odd the only news coming down about the proposed 10-MW ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) plant on Oahu is from the far side of the world?

We noted the other day that the Taiwan Journal mentioned the highly anticipated joint project by Lockheed Martin and the Industrial Technology Research Institute. Now comes news out of India that the Chennai-based National Institute of Ocean Technology is in talks with Lockheed about whether a deep water pipe designed by the Institute might be used in the rumored Hawaii plant. Said an Institute official:

“We, too, have designed a pipe for the same (dredging cold water) and our discussions with Lockheed Martin were largely on whether they could use our design for their (Hawaii) project. We haven’t yet discussed technology transfer. It’s still an early-stage discussion.”

At this rate, we half expect the next media mention of Hawaii’s supposed future OTEC plant to spring from Uzbekistan.

This latest mention is by an online outfit called LiveMint.com, described as the online version of the newspaper Mint that was launched by HT Media Ltd of India in collaboration with the Wall Street Journal. Jacob P. Koshy writes for LiveMint.com and the Hindustan Times.

Mr. Koshy tried to learn more about the potential collaboration of the Institute and Lockheed but reports: “An email to Lockheed Martin for comment sent last Tuesday remained unanswered.”

And so it goes. We hope our friends at Lockheed Martin will have news for public consumption in Hawaii sometime soon about the Oahu OTEC project, which is potentially of great import to the state. (See some of our November 2008 posts about this project and what we can only call a news blackout since it was first announced.)

Oahu’s Proposed OTEC Plant Scores a Little Ink

There’s been a news blackout in the past three months about the proposed ocean thermal energy conversion project involving Lockheed Martin and Taiwan’s Industrial Technology Research Institute.

That would seem to be the case, as our trusty Google search feature hasn’t turned up anything new since the relationship was announced in November during a trade mission by Hawaii Governor Linda Lingle. (We celebrated the news with a champagne toast.)

Not until today, that is. The Taiwan Journal carries a story on potential of OTEC and wave power contributions to partially satisfy the island’s energy requirements; it includes a brief mention of the proposed Oahu plant:

“Last November, ITRI signed an agreement with the U.S. state of Hawaii and Lockheed Martin Corp. to cooperate on developing a 10-megawatt OTEC pilot plant in Hawaii. However, the institute was unable to disclose any details regarding its participation in the project as it is bound by the agreement's confidentiality clause.”

Just as we suspected – the cursed confidentiality clause....

The article doesn’t offer much if any new information about OTEC as it repeats what we already know, including this insight: “Economic viability and technical feasibility are the two major challenges facing the development of ocean energy.”

Well, yes – and much the same was said earlier this month in a University of Hawaii lecture on OTEC. But we’re encouraged that scientists and engineers are working hard to overcome these challenges.

We just wish there was less “confidentiality” and more openness among the parties so we could learn what’s up with the proposed Oahu plant.

San Diego Solar Industry: Sunny Days, All the Time

SAN DIEGO, CA – Speaking of solar energy, as we were in our last post before flying here, it’s easy to see why locals call this Sun Diego.  There are no clouds – anywhere! (OK, it rained last week, but that was then.) After 35 years in Hawaii, we’re still surprised by the sunrise-to-sunset cloudless days found in cities around the Golden State, including Sacramento.

So it was almost expected that the local public radio station would air a special report on the solar energy industry this morning for our benefit. (The above photo is from the station's website and shows Stone Brewing Company in Escondido.) Despite the poor economy, the industry appears to be in super robust mode, with an estimated 1100 solar installers/contractors in San Diego County. Then again, the population (2.9 million in 2006) is well beyond the combined population of Hawaii’s four counties (1.3 million).

Bay Area Goes Electric

Up the coast, Mayor Gavin Newsom is crowing about San Francisco’s leadership position in “transforming the Bay Area into the Electric Vehicle Capital of the United States.” His column on Huffington Post notes Better Place’s plan to invest $1 billion in a plug-in network there, similar to the company’s intentions in Hawaii. C’mon, Hawaii: let's show San Francisco how it’s done by becoming the Electric Vehicle Capital of the World!

More from Pat Takahashi

We’ll close by once again calling attention to Pat Takahashi’s daily blog, Simple Solutions for Planet Earth and Humanity. His post yesterday was typical Pat – a mixture of dreaming (his word) and depressing (also his word.) An example:

"Make no mistake about it, though, this recession is leaning in the direction of depression, and those trillion dollar rescue packages dwarf past government expenditures. Yes, World War II did cost something on the order of $2.5 trillion, but how many realize that the total of the Manhattan Project, Marshall Plan and Apollo Project, in 2009 dollars, is only about a quarter trillion dollars? The Bush and Obama rescue packages alone amount to five times more than what it took to build the atomic bomb to end the war, save Europe and send Men to the Moon."

We recommend Pat’s blog for his experience-based observations on our energy predicament.

OTEC May be ‘Big Picture’ Long-Range Solution, but Solar Energy Is Making an Impact Here and Now

We once heard ocean thermal energy conversion called the “enemy” by a solar energy developer. He and possibly some others in the emerging renewable energy industry see OTEC as just another big industrial process requiring huge investments like existing power plants. How huge? According to Joe Van Ryzin of Makai Ocean Engineering, Oahu’s first “starter” plant may require an investment of $200-300 million. Solar advocates have little to fear from OTEC for at least a decade – if ever.

Jay Fidell provides an update on the current state of local solar energy development in his Think Tech column in today’s Advertiser:

“There’s been a dramatic quickening – some say a revolution – in commercial solar installation in Hawaii. We’ve heard of photovoltaic panels on residential rooftops, but now we’re hearing about large commercial solar installations, too.”

Commercial solar is where the action is these days (photo shows Sunectric's installation at Windward Honda), and the action can only increase if the cost of oil starts climbing again as most predict. 

Too Much Abundance?

Combined with improvements in energy storage capabilities, large-scale wind and solar energy development eventually could make OTEC investment seem less attractive if renewables cut dramatically into the fossil fuel requirement to generate electricity here.

Still, we can’t see turning our backs on the world’s greatest solar energy collector and “battery” – the tropical ocean. The old advice about keeping balance in our lives undoubtedly applies here, as well. Hawaii is on the right path in developing its wind and solar energy resources, but success in those fields shouldn’t dampen enthusiasm for what OTEC can do for the state and the nation.

Makai Ocean Engineering’s Van Ryzin also predicted in his lecture that OTEC could be a critical component to a future hydrogen economy in America. Hawaii would have advantages in such an economy thanks to the state’s access to the tropical ocean – reason enough to keep the focus on OTEC as a potential energy and economic game-changer in the islands.

Will OTEC Ever Deliver Lincolnesque Emancipation To Hawaii, USA from their Slavery to Imported Oil?

Enthusiastic lecture attendees had their WWW moment blurred by an inept photographer.

Melodramatic though the headline’s question may be, it does have relevance on the bicentennial of the birth of our 16th president. Some of us have thought ocean thermal energy conversion could be a potential energy game-changer (see our first post) – as dramatic in its own right as the cause for which Lincoln is most remembered and admired.

The emphasis is on “potential,” and thanks to yesterday’s OTEC lecture at the University of Hawaii by Joe Van Ryzin of Makai Ocean Engineering, we have a better appreciation of the challenges facing this technology.

This blog can’t do justice to his hour-long presentation, but we hope to have selected enough highlights to capture the right tone – a balance of sobering reality and encouraging potential.

First, an Encouraging Word

Van Ryzin said the state of Hawaii is at the key pivotal point for OTEC development in the world. He noted that no more fossil fuel power plants will be built in Hawaii according to agreements reached between Hawaiian Electric Company, the State and the Federal DOE. Hawaii will have to rely on renewable energy for the rest of its days.

“You’ve got to look at the difference between OTEC and other renewables,” he said. “OTEC will provide firm power. It’s on 24/7, and if you look to renewables for firm power, OTEC is really it for this island and for a few other islands. So you realize that we might be able to build an OTEC plant for this island, perhaps for Guam, perhaps for Puerto Rico, and provide electricity at an attractive rate today. If so, how do you get there?”

Van Ryzin said if one 100MW plant can be built for Oahu, many could be built – perhaps 10 for Oahu alone. That itself would be a pretty good business, he said, and by then you’d have an assured technology that could be used to create, for example, ammonia and hydrogen for the entire United States if it were to convert to a different energy paradigm.

Van Ryzin’s company has teamed with Lockheed Martin in analyzing how to overcome OTEC’s many challenges. We were left with the firm belief that OTEC still can be the game-changer, especially for Hawaii here in the middle of a tropical ocean that absorbs prodigious amounts of solar energy each day.

$200 Million To Pass GO

But for starters, consider the cost of the first 10MW OTEC plant that presumably would be built in Hawaii to take the concept to the next level. Van Ryzin’s estimate is $200-300 million, and the line of financial backers is short or non-existent. The Federal government may be the only entity in a position to invest the large sums necessary to build Oahu’s “starter plant.” Everything about OTEC is big, he said:

“In trying to build the first OTEC plant, you have to apply all the engineering skills you have and finesse the costs. It’s the chicken and egg. From the technology point of view, you’d like to have it, but it’s pretty expensive. Who’s going to pay for it and how's it going to get done?

“A 100 MW OTEC plant would be economically viable for a location like Oahu. When you look at a 10MW plant, it’s kinda hard to make the business case for that, because things don’t scale down. You can’t build a 10MW plant for one-tenth the cost of a 100MW plant.

“What the real challenge is for OTEC is that we’re out there trying to build the first OTEC plant, trying to build it economically and do it as fast as we can, but you’ve got to apply all the engineering skills, all the knowledge that we have and really finesse the engineering cost.”

The challenges that must be overcome to scale up from 10 to 400 MW plants one day include the design and construction of the heat exchangers; the type of platform (onshore vs. floating, and if floating, the configuration); the size of the cold water pipe (perhaps 9.5 meters in diameter); foul-weather survivability; the design of the dynamic power cable running to the shore; the environmental impacts, and of course, the financing.

Well, yes….the challenges are real and significant, but the nation has a history of setting ambitious goals and achieving them. Between 1957 and 1966, the United States attempted 164 space launches; 101 of them ended in failure, but the country didn’t walk away from the moon shot.

Aiming for 2040

Once those engineering challenges are overcome, and most in the audience of engineers, scientists and academics presumably agree they will be, OTEC’s potential is such that this excruciatingly long approach to the first plant will have been worth the wait.

“If you have OTEC plants floating in some convenient spot producing ammonia and shipping it to shore, you’re already at the point to provide either ammonia or hydrogen to the DOE hydrogen economy of 2040,” Van Ryzin said.

Sequencing the steps to get to that level is not an overwhelming process, he continued, and can be tackled with R&D projects on the technical challenges.

“In order for OTEC to be really important for the United States, it can’t be just OTEC plants for Hawaii. What impact can OTEC have for the entire United States? Could we build enough OTEC plants and put them in an equatorial region and produce either hydrogen or ammonia, transport that to the United States and be able to make it on a large enough scale that it could provide enough fuel for all the light-weight vehicles in the United States?"

That’s an immense undertaking, with perhaps 700 OTEC plants of 400MW size, tankers going back and forth all the time. But Van Ryzin said this could make sense in 30 years when oil no longer is acceptable as a fuel for a variety of reasons – cost, security, the environment.

Van Ryzin had much more to say about OTEC’s potential to eliminate fossil fuel use in Hawaii over the next three decades, thereby preserving our security and treasure and providing a major new source of employment and investment. Listening to his lecture, one understands that like our parents’ and grandparents’ generations, ours is working to solve technical challenges today for the benefit of our children and their children.

It’s always been that way and hopefully always will be. This generation is now poised to fulfill OTEC’s potential more than any other in the past 150 years since the earliest ocean energy theories were proposed. Companies like Makai Ocean Engineering, Lockheed Martin and others that are working on it and deserve our individual and collective support.

Let's hope the new Obama Administration is paying attention.

'Hawaii Clear Car Act' Hearing Set for Thursday

Two bills before the State Legislature – Senate 1233 and 1174 – are modeled after California’s clean car legislation. Taken together, the Hawaii Clean Car Act requires automakers to provide cars and trucks producing 30 percent less greenhouse gas emissions by 2016.

The Blue Planet Foundation has submitted testimony for Thursday’s hearing (4 p.m., Capitol Room 225) and is urging others to do the same via email. We kinda like the emailed testimony of someone close to this blog:

Chair Gabbard and members of the committee:

I write to you as a concerned mother and grandmother.

As you know, our Legislature now has a golden opportunity to help eliminate offensive automobile air pollution, encourage less dependency on foreign and imported oil, and make life on our islands better for all citizens--including over 154,000 citizens suffering from some sort of lung and/or respiratory disease.

We need to join the ranks of other states and progressively provide protection for the citizens of our state. Forward thinking at this time, by passing SB 1233 and SB 1174, will further the environmental policies of President Obama as well as establish Hawaii as a state willing to come forward and do whatever is necessary to help save our environment. There can be no doubt that all states and countries must work together to end dependency on oil and hence to stop global warming. 

Additionally, these two bills do not impose a tax burden on citizens during the current difficult economic downturn. The beauty of our aina is dependent upon our Legislature's good judgment when deciding environmental policy. It is now time to take a firm and aggressive stance with regard to such important policy.

Thank you for the opportunity to testify.

Lennie J. Carlson

President Promotes Energy Efficient Mass Transit

President Barack Obama had some good things to say today about energy efficiency and transit. Since he’s from Hawaii and undoubtedly has good thoughts about his home state each and every day, we like to think he was specifically referring to the Honolulu rail transit project that’s scheduled to move from the drawing boards to groundbreaking late this year.

Our sister blog has an excerpt of the President’s town hall meeting in Ft. Meyers, FL, and you’re invited to visit.

Pacific Business News Profiles HECO’s New CEO

We normally wouldn’t take much notice of personnel matters inside Hawaii’s largest electric utility, but since what happens inside the company will affect what happens outside like never before, we’re more than a little interested in Hawaiian Electric Company's new chief executive officer.

The new Pacific Business News (Feb. 6 edition) carries an extensive profile on Dick Rosenblum, who was lured out of (a young) retirement. (Subscribers to the print edition can link to the article here; others will have to buy the business weekly.)

With the transition to a different kind of utility now underway, he takes the helm at a critical time in the company’s evolution – perhaps the equal of the transition engineered by C. Dudley Pratt, Jr. when the Hawaiian Electric Industries holding company was formed in 1981.

Rosenblum brings considerable expertise in power generation and delivery to the islands, but there’s one piece of experience we hope is mostly irrelevant during his tenure here – his role as chief nuclear officer for Southern California Edison. We filed our thoughts about nuclear power in Hawaii under our “Fuggitaboutit” post last week.

Welcome to Honolulu, Dick Rosenblum. We wish you good luck and much success in guiding HECO’s evolution to a utility that helps accelerate development of renewable energy and phases out fossil fuel for the generation of electricity in the islands.

Generations Share Experiences, Hopes for Future At FOCUS Hawaii’s Climate Change Teach-In

UH Environmental Policy undergrad David Aquino addresses group.

Two impressions stand out among many from last night’s teach-in at the University of Hawaii:

• Attendees ranged from the early 20s (if not teens) to the upper 60s (if not 70s);
• The generations spoke with and not at one another.

The local event – undoubtedly the last of many similar gatherings held yesterday across the nation – was built around the webcast “Solutions for the First 100 Days” aimed at enthusing youth to descend on Washington late this month to lobby for dramatic cuts in fossil fuel emissions. (Memo to the teach-in's organizers: Hawaii and Alaska deserve inclusion in your “action map” of the United States.)

The Presidential Climate Action Project developed at the University of Colorado over the past two years lays out an agenda for the Obama Administration’s first 100 days to “put us on a path to stabilizing the climate.” (See webcast’s text for details.)

Once the long video was out of the way, microphones were opened for an exchange of views, questions and suggestions between the panel and the audience of about 50. The older generation spoke first, since most of us have learned one place or another along the way that “the only failure is not to participate.” But eventually all age groups spoke up, and the commitment to address global change was ubiquitous.

Failure or Foundation?

We thought members the older generation were a little hard on themselves for allegedly having failed to turn the nation around with their ecological efforts decades ago. Early efforts set the right tone; the first Earth Day was held in 1970. Jimmy Carter urged the nation to lower thermostats and install solar panels, as he did on the White House roof.

It was the Ronald Reagan crowd that removed those panels, slashed federal renewable energy budgets and set the energy conservation movement back at least two decades. The lesson is clear: What happens at the top is critical, so let’s be sure the Obama Administration sets the tone for the next generation.

We made a plug for ocean thermal energy conversion, of course, and it was good to hear others mention OTEC along with wind, solar and biomass among Hawaii’s abundant renewable energy resources.

The Blue Planet Foundation – with a mission “to end the use of carbon-based fuels” and start the effort in Hawaii – was present with an offer to help one or more deserving young people travel to Washington for the national gathering in late February.

UH clean energy activists invited the audience to two campus events next week – the 2nd annual B-Day Bash of the student-led Sustainable Saunders group, and Time magazine’s “Greenest CEO” Ray Anderson’s appearance at the Campus Center. (Contact Sustainable Sanders; these events aren’t on the website’s calendar today.)

If the energy in the room last night is efficiently put to work by the organizations in attendance -- Sustainable Saunders, Blue Planet Foundation, Interfaith Power and Light and others – the teach-in will have a lasting effect. But let’s hope for a bigger turnout next time. As the seminar leader said:

“The only failure is not to participate.”

Smart Grid Aims To Connect Hawaii’s Islands

An image from GE's smart grid spot during Sunday's Super Bowl.

When inspiration fails, we do the logical thing and cockroach off someone else’s blog. After only a little searching today we found the GE Global Research Blog and a piece posted just yesterday by Devon Manz.

Manz is an engineer working on a smart grid concept applicable for the Hawaiian Islands. (We thought he looked familiar and confirmed it at the list of attendees of last April’s Blue Planet Summit.)

Manz’s post nicely states the problem facing renewable energy advocates in Hawaii: The islands are just that – standalone piles of rock in the middle of the Pacific not connected with one another by an electric grid.

Most of the renewable energy development potential (excluding ocean thermal energy conversion -- OTEC; we’ll get to that later) is on the “neighbor islands,” but most of the load is on the capital island of Oahu. What to do?

The unsurprising solution is to connect the islands with undersea cables. The distances and depths are not all that remarkable, with the possible exception of the 6100-foot-deep Alenuihaha Channel between Maui and the Big Island.  (Jan TenBruggencate of the Raising Islands blog checks in to note that the Kaieiewaho Channel between Kauai and Oahu drops to more than 11,000 feet.  You're right, Jan, but not many are pushing to go to Kauai these days -- undersea or on top of it!)

With up to 500 MW of wind energy planned for Molokai and Lanai and only minimal loads on those islands, a smart grid will be needed to connect those intermittent renewable energy sources with the load on Oahu. Manz’s piece documents the challenge and prospects for success that will enable Hawaii to maximize renewable energy contributions in the state.

About OTEC

The graphic on the GE blog doesn’t mention future contributions from this ocean energy technology to meet Oahu’s power requirements. Without an OTEC plant even under construction here and only a signed agreement to build one, it’s pretty early to make representations about the technology’s potential to provide power, firm or otherwise. For the record, however, Hawaiian Electric’s integrated resource planning has 200 MW reserved for OTEC, and its officers have been unambiguous about their willingness to embrace ocean energy and its potential to deliver non-intermittent baseload power.

No to Nukes, Part 2: Debunking an Urban Myth

Someone sent us an email after reading our “Fuggitaboutit!” post immediately below, saying Hawaii already has nuclear power thanks to nuclear-powered submarines based at Pearl Harbor. He added:

“Surely you remember that a nuclear sub powered Kauai’s grid after (Hurricane) Iniki.”

This “submarine to the rescue” urban legend needs an asterisk: It never happened. True, a plan was floated for a sub hook-up to Kauai’s grid after Hurricane Iwa devastated it on November 23, 1982 – not Iniki, which struck on 9/11, 1992. Here’s a New York Times report a week after Iwa:

“Plans to use the nuclear submarine Indianapolis to provide power for Kauai were dropped after three portable generators arrived from California.”

Once these legends start rolling, they pick up all sorts of extraneous tidbits. A website devoted to the attack submarine Indianapolis has a photo of the sub entering a Kauai harbor “to provide assistance after hurricane Iwa passed through the area on 1 May 1982.” And so it goes….

A Better, Cleaner Way

Do nuclear submarines at Pearl Harbor make civilian nuke power in Hawaii more acceptable? We think that’s also bogus. How can we even consider going down that path when Hawaii’s renewable energy resources have barely been tapped?

We won’t belabor the case for ocean thermal energy conversion here; we’ll know within a few years whether OTEC is all that it’s cracked up to be – see also our first post to this site -- and if it is, goodbye to fossil fuel imports for electrical generation here within a generation.

Then there’s solar power using photovoltaics, just now coming into their own, with even greater promise thanks to advances in power storage capabilities. Jay Fidell’s “Think Tech” column in today’s Advertiser is definitely worth your time.

So let’s put this suggestion floating around the State Legislature to rest. Building nuclear power plants in Hawaii is a ridiculous idea.
NOTE: The Honolulu Star-Bulletin reports today the bill to study nuke power has been killed. Be prepared for its return next year.

No No No No No! And To Be Clear --- Fuggitaboutit!

We admit to a little neglect of this blog and the world strikes back! It's been about a week since the Legislature went into session, and already some of our public servants want to study the feasibility of nuclear power in Hawaii.

We warned you this could happen – way back on August 6th after picking up the signs in downtown Honolulu.

Let’s be clear about opposition to nuclear power in Hawaii and hope it somehow gets to the newspapers: You don’t have to be an “environmentalist” or “activist” to oppose nuke power in these islands. That’s how today’s Advertiser seems to lump opponents.

You can be a realist or a pragmatist or an idealist or someone who simply knows with certainty that Hawaii’s alternatives to burning fossil fuel to generate electricity can be found in the wind, sun and ocean.

What do you suppose would happen if you asked legislators who support nuclear power for an elevator talk on ocean thermal energy conversion? Would they even know where to begin?

The tropical ocean is the largest solar energy collector on the planet, and we’re swimming in it! Plans are underway to build Hawaii’s first operating OTEC plant; when proven and built out to 100-megawatt size on off-shore platforms or ships, OTEC will be a source of unlimited baseload power that takes advantage of nuclear energy supplied by the sun.

That’s a comeback used by Jeff Mikulina, executive director of the Blue Planet Foundation:

“We do have nuclear power in Hawaii; it’s called the sun and it’s safely located 93 million miles away.”

The sun’s energy is stored safely in the ocean that surrounds us, so let’s get on with ensuring a smooth and rapid transition to clean, renewable energy and stop this ridiculous talk about bringing nuclear power to Hawaii.  For more on renewable energy as "our only viable option," see Pat Takahashi's piece today at Huffington Post.

Admissions of Neglect: We’re Two-Timing This Blog

Anybody out there get nervous if you don’t post to your website for a few days? That’s what we’re feeling this week, but we can explain:

We’ve been spending time with another blog -- Yes2Rail. The Honolulu rapid transit fixed guideway project we’re affiliated with is steadily progressing and has registered some new developments; e.g., the Honolulu City Council voted yesterday to shift the route so it will pass U.S. Naval Station Pearl Harbor and Honolulu International Airport.

The route was a no-brainer from way back, but political considerations two years ago required a compromise that initially fixed the route through a predominantly residential district. The new route’s projected ridership shows higher usage, including among the thousands of workers at Pearl Harbor Naval Shipyard and the airport.

What’s more, this will be an environmentally preferable way to commute compared to the over-reliance on the private automobile on Oahu.  The "airport route" is expected to reduce road congestion by 23 percent in the next two decades.

So there you have it; we’ve stepping out with another blog, but we promise to turn our attention back to Hawaii's renewable energy options soon enough.  (Please visit Yes2Rail; it relishes all the attention it can get.)

Governor’s State-of-State Speech Says Oil ‘Sucks’

OK, that’s a bit abrupt. Here’s the full quote for proper context:

“Oil pollutes the environment, it sucks billions of dollars out of our economy and leaves us dependent on the goodwill of foreign countries and companies for our very survival.” (Tabloid treatment in the pursuit of energy independence is no vice.)

Governor Linda Lingle’s State of the State contained a strong commitment to reducing and eventually eliminating Hawaii’s dependence on imported oil and other energy resources. Renewable energy advocates will find much to like in her speech before the Legislature today, such as:

“As the world’s most isolated set of islands and our nation’s most oil-dependent state, a clean energy future is no longer simply a desire of environmentalists, it is an absolute necessity for our long-term economic survival.”

There’s plenty more about energy in the speech, which you can both read and watch at the Governor’s website.

•  Castle & Cooke's Harry Saunders writes in the Advertiser about the company's new solar farm on Lanai.

Electric Cars Hit Hawaii Roads in Reliability Tests

Cops chasing bad guys in electric cars? No more vroooom, just swiiiiiiiish?

That may happen now that the Honolulu Police Department is testing hybrid vehicles, according to the Honolulu Advertiser. (That's Officer Ioane Ke`ehu at right in an Advertiser photo.) Numerous companies and government agencies are putting electric cars and buses to the test.

The initiative that may have generated the greatest interest locally so far is Better Place’s intent to build a $1 billion electric car infrastructure in the state.

Bring it on – and while officials are at it, how ‘bout converting one of those behemoth cement trucks to electricity? Now, that would be a test – and a simultaneous reduction in air pollution.

OTEC History, Challenges and Potential Highlighted In an ‘Invention and Technology’ Magazine Article

Much of what a reasonably curious person would want to know about ocean thermal energy conversion – including the frustrations of French inventor Georges Claude (at left) – can be found in a well-researched article by James R. Chiles in the Winter 2009 edition of Invention and Technology magazine. (Unfortunately, the link is no longer active.)

The article’s subhead draws in the reader:

“Eighty years ago, a brilliant French inventor staked – and lost – his considerable fortune on developing ocean thermal energy, but his dream of harnessing unlimited energy from the sea lives today.”

Claude tried again and again to make his OTEC dream work but was undone by bad technology, bad planning and bad weather forecasting. The piece devotes a major portion of its space to Claude’s ultimately fruitless efforts, but valuable lessons were learned about the difficulty of deploying OTEC technology, lessons that Chiles says are relevant in today’s quest to develop Hawaii's first pre-commercial OTEC plant.

Here are a couple quotes from the article:

“A natural source of power exists which is abundantly able to supply all power needed by future man.” The tropical ocean can supply “an indefinitely large storehouse of potential energy, inexhaustible” if tapped.

So wrote engineer Ben J. Campbell 96 years ago, and it’s still being said today (providing further support to the notion there's nothing new under the sun; see this blog’s first post on March 14, 2008).

Chiles’ piece is recommended reading, especially for its mention of Hawaii initiatives and personalities affiliated with OTEC, including entrepreneur Bill Spencer’s fish farming plans for Hawaii Oceanic Technologies that would use small OTEC systems to power fish pens in the open ocean.

(Mahalo to Robert Cohen, long-time OTEC enthusiast and backer, for sending us the article.)